26 - 28 April, 2017 | Swissotel, Sydney, NSW

Pedram Danesh-Mand

Principal - National Manager Controls & Risk
Aquenta Consulting

11:30 Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and its Application in Delivery of Major Projects and Effective Decision Making

Achieving project goals depends on planning and constant re-evaluation of its status while managing risks, opportunities and uncertainties proactively. These days, good practice of proactive risk management and risk analysis is vital for most decision makers. Through recent case studies this highly-interactive workshop will enhance your risk management and Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) skills enabling you to:
  • Understand QRA methodologies and common sources of risks in engineering projects
  • Understand project estimate uncertainties, schedules, and allowances
  • Learn different ways of contingency calculation, allocation and controls (both time and cost)
  • Assess certainty for having a winning bid and a successful project delivery

The workshop will discuss:
  • Top causes of project failure
  • ISO 31000:2009 and ISO 31010 – Risk Analysis
  • Qualitative vs Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)
  • QRA in bidding and delivering
  • Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA)
  • Cost Risk Analysis (CRA)
  • Correlation
  • Joint Confidence Level (JCL)
  • Threats to effective QRA process
  • Some tips and lessons learned

11:40 Case Study – Risk, Cost and Schedule – How to Assess and Model these Together to Evaluate, Allocate and Manage Optimum Contingencies for Effective Decision Making

The new released Contingency Guideline by Risk Engineering Society provides a good reference document for different approaches to sizing, allocating and managing the most appropriate contingency reserves (time and cost) at different stages of the asset investment lifecycle for projects and programs while explicitly taking into account the risks facing the investment as well as decision-makers' levels of risk appetite and tolerance.

Optimistic single value estimates often result from planning applications which require users to determine single values for durations in project plans where it would be more realistic to assign a probability distribution. Combined with the pressure to meet predetermined targets, such single values tend to be optimistic. A similar situation applies with cost estimates. In this session, Pedram will discuss major projects including Sydney Metro City & South West project worth $21 Billion, BHP Olympic Dam, APLNG, ETTT, and WestConnex and how methods of contingency calculation have been applied in relation to:

  • Australian Government and contingency requirements
  • Time/cost contingency calculation, allocation and controls
  • Deterministic and Probabilistic methodologies
  • Contingency and escalation

Check out the incredible speaker line-up to see who will be joining Pedram.

Download The Latest Agenda